The first-year marketing budget for a new heating company shouldn't come from a percentage someone read online. It should come from four numbers you can estimate today: what a typical job is worth to you, how often you close a quote, what a call costs in your area, and how much cash you could lose for a few months without hurting the business. This guide shows how to combine them, with worked examples you can redo with your own figures.
Everything here is an illustration. The numbers are invented for the arithmetic, not taken from any client or market. Replace them with yours.
Step 1: Work out what a job is worth to you
Start with gross profit per job, not revenue. Marketing has to be paid from what's left after materials and direct labour.
Example:
- Average job revenue: $1,600 (a mix of repairs, maintenance and the occasional replacement)
- Materials and direct costs: $880
- Gross profit per job: $720
Now decide what share of that first-job profit you're willing to spend to win a new customer. For a new company, a reasonable starting point might be up to a third, because a good first job often leads to maintenance visits, referrals and reviews. In this example, a third of $720 is $240. That's your affordable cost per booked job.
If most of your work is replacements, your numbers will look very different. A $7,000 replacement with $2,800 gross profit could justify a much higher cost per job, but those jobs are less frequent, so you'll need to look at monthly totals too.
Step 2: Turn cost per call into cost per booked job
Ads are priced by the click, but you get paid by the job. The bridge between them is your answer rate and your closing rate.
Example assumptions:
- Cost per answered call from paid search in your town: $75
- Share of calls that turn into booked jobs: 40%
Cost per booked job = $75 ÷ 0.40 = $187.50.
That's under the $240 affordable figure from step 1, so paid search looks viable in this example. If your closing rate were 25%, cost per booked job would rise to $300, above the affordable figure, and you'd want to improve how you handle quotes before spending more.
How to estimate cost per call before you've run ads:
- Look up typical cost-per-click ranges for your main services and city in the Google Ads keyword planner.
- Assume only a fraction of clicks become calls; a cautious estimate keeps you safe.
- Run a small test for several weeks and replace the estimate with real data.
Step 3: Price in the calls you miss
Missed calls are the most expensive line in a new company's budget, and they never appear on an invoice. When you're the only technician, you'll miss calls while you're under a house or on a roof.
Continue the example. Say you pay for 40 calls a month, but 30% go unanswered and most of those callers phone someone else.
- Calls paid for: 40
- Calls answered: 28
- Jobs booked at 40%: about 11
- Monthly ad spend: 40 × $75 = $3,000
- Real cost per booked job: $3,000 ÷ 11 ≈ $273
The same budget that looked healthy at $187.50 per job is now above the $240 limit. Nothing about the ads changed; only the phone handling did.
Fixes that cost far less than more advertising:
- An automatic text reply to missed calls, so the caller hears from you within a minute.
- Clear "we'll call you back within the hour" messaging on your voicemail, and keeping that promise.
- Ads scheduled for the hours you can actually answer.
The first-year lead plan includes a missed-call text-back for this reason.
Step 4: Set a cap you can afford to lose
Your monthly cap is the most you could spend for three months with no results, without missing payroll, a loan payment or your own rent. This protects the business while you learn what works.
Questions to settle the cap:
- How much cash will you have after equipment, vehicle and insurance costs?
- How many months of personal expenses can you cover if work is slow?
- What other fixed marketing costs do you have, such as hosting, phone and software?
If the honest answer is "very little", start with the near-free channels: your Google Business Profile, reviews, referrals from former colleagues and suppliers, and a clean, readable van. Paid search can wait until the first jobs give you a cushion.
Step 5: Build the first-year table
Plan the year month by month, with fixed costs, ad spend and expected jobs side by side. Here's an illustrative table for a solo owner who opens in late summer. Copy it and fill in your own numbers.
| Month | Website and hosting | Ad spend cap | Expected booked jobs from ads | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Website build (one-time) | $0 | 0 | Name, site, profile in progress |
| 2 | Hosting | $0 | 0 | Profile verification, first referral jobs |
| 3 | Hosting | $1,000 | 4–5 | First paid test, review requests |
| 4 | Hosting | $1,500 | 6–8 | First cold weeks; watch missed calls |
| 5 | Hosting | $1,500 | 6–8 | Peak season; hold the cap |
| 6 | Hosting | $1,500 | 6–8 | Review results, adjust |
| 7–9 | Hosting | $1,000 | 4–6 | Shoulder season; push maintenance |
| 10–12 | Hosting | $750 | 3–4 | Quieter months; plan for next autumn |
The "expected jobs" column uses the step 2 example of roughly $190 to $250 per booked job. Yours will differ. The structure is the point: fixed costs first, a cautious test, a capped peak and a measured slow season.
If you plan to hire us for parts of this, our published prices are on the pricing page. Add them as separate lines; never let marketing fees and ad spend blur together.
Step 6: Review monthly, and know when to change course
Each month, compare actual cost per booked job against your affordable figure. That single comparison tells you what to do next.
- Well below affordable, and you have capacity: raise the cap modestly, perhaps by 20 to 25%, and watch whether cost per job holds.
- Near affordable: hold the cap and work on answer rate and closing rate.
- Above affordable for two months running: cut spending, fix the phone handling or the quote process, and look at which searches are producing poor calls.
- No capacity for more work: lower the cap. Paying for calls you can't take damages your reputation.
What to record each month, in a simple spreadsheet:
- Calls by source: ads, Google listing, website, referrals.
- Calls answered and missed.
- Jobs booked, and their total revenue.
- Ad spend and other marketing costs.
- Cost per booked job, and how it compares with your affordable figure.
Common budgeting mistakes
- Copying an established competitor's spending. They have reviews, repeat customers and brand recognition; you don't yet.
- Spending the whole year's budget in the first cold snap. Demand is high, but so is competition, and you may not be able to take all the work.
- Counting clicks as results. Clicks are a cost. Booked jobs are the result.
- Forgetting GST/HST and fees. Budget in totals you'll actually pay.
- Not tracking referrals. If half your jobs come from word of mouth, that's a channel worth investing in through reviews and follow-ups.
Where to go from here
If you haven't finished the earlier launch steps, go back to the launch checklist; a budget only works once the website and Google profile are in place. If your numbers suggest paid search is viable and you'd like help running it, read about the first-year lead plan or get in touch with your figures, and we'll check the arithmetic with you.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of revenue should a new heating company spend on marketing?
There's no single right percentage, and rules of thumb from established companies don't fit a business with no reputation yet. It's more useful to work out what you can afford to pay to win one job, then set a cap you could lose for a few months without harm.
How do I know my closing rate if I haven't started?
Estimate it conservatively from your experience on someone else's crew, then replace the estimate with real numbers after your first 20 or 30 quotes.
Should I spend more in winter?
Demand rises in the cold months, but so does competition for ads. Many new companies do better by being fully ready before the first cold weeks rather than outbidding everyone during them.
When should I increase my budget?
When cost per booked job is comfortably below what you can afford, you have capacity for more work, and the numbers have held for at least a couple of months.